CrowdThnk’s Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
1. What does the scale for the Positioning Score represent?
The CrowdThnk Positioning Score Scale ranges from 0 to 10 with 0 representing low-conviction or under-weight consensus positioning and 10 indicative of overcrowded consensus positioning. The low end of the Positioning Score Scale signifies the market may be short the stock on a speculative basis or underweight due to poor fundamentals and lack of institutional support. The high end of the Positioning Score Scale represents extreme bullishness on a particular stock, supported by real, actively held positions by investors. All scores are relative to historical positioning in each stock as relative rather than absolute positioning is more predictive in determining where the stock price will head in the future. We then use these historical positioning scores to probability-weight the stock’s future path over a discrete time horizon, providing an edge to our clients.
2. Why has it historically been difficult to measure Consensus Market Positioning?
Positioning Data – defined as the aggregate sum of investor positioning across multiple channels and unstructured data sources – is a very difficult reading to measure given the disparity between information and datasets. Many large custodian firms who act as a clearing broker can only view a certain segment of the equity flow as they don’t cover all clients in the stock market. Additionally, many investors do not willingly disclose their positions without receiving a tangible value in return, making it difficult to aggregate consensus positioning. It is only with a combination of crowdsourcing unstructured data sets, Big Data and Machine Learning that CrowdThnk can quantify and accurate assessment of the entire stock market positioning landscape. We believe we’re at the forefront of this new, cutting-edge approach to measuring stock market positioning.
3. How Does Market Positioning Impact Stock Prices?
Market Positioning is frequently a driving factor impacting the movement of stock prices. CrowdThnk gives users a unique insight into market mechanics by accurately revealing the market’s consensus positioning on a particular stock. Frequently, extreme measures in positioning can lead to volatile price swings. By incorporating CrowdThnk’s Positioning Scores in your investment process, you will have a better understanding of this previously-unquantifiable market risk. Fundamentals and catalysts will ultimately move stock prices in the long-term but one-sided positioning and sentiment can move markets in the shorter term, such as around catalyst events or earnings releases.
4. What is unique about CrowdThnk?
CrowdThnk is a pioneer in quantifying and measuring consensus market positioning amongst its peers utilizing big data and machine learning technology to an extent heretofore unseen with single-name stocks. Other publications and news outlets may attempt to aggregate various slices of positioning within the entire investment universe but CrowdThnk’s unique platform incorporates an all-encompassing picture of the investment landscape by employing crowdsourced positioning data combined with publicly available information to give customers a quantifiable market edge. We believe our data sets are a critical and important part of both systematic and discretionary funds’ data acquisition strategies.
5. What is the historical accuracy of CrowdThnk’s Forecasts?
CrowdThnk has varying accuracy depending on each individual stock given its relative price pattern with respect to positioning data. Our Weekly High Conviction Forecasts have garnered a strong historical accuracy for correctly signaling the future market direction over a discrete time period. These represent our Strongest Conviction Forecasts based on the unique market metrics and consensus market positioning level of each particular stock. These signals are based on historical results, which are not necessarily indicative of future performance, however. Enterprise Subscribers will be able to follow and track these forecasts directly on a weekly basis.
6. Where does the Data that CrowdThnk aggregates come from?
CrowdThnk aggregates positioning data from many disparate data sources including, but not limited to: Corporate 13Fs, Institutional Reports, Custodian Reports, Fund Positioning (self-reported), 10Ks, crowdsourced surveys amongst other publicly-available data sources. We use a proprietary algorithm to rank and weight various sources in order to quantify and distill this disparate data into a single metric, which we term the CrowdThnk Positioning Score, representing a unique measure of consensus market positioning on each stock.
7. What do customers on the CrowdThnk Free subscription receive?
Customers signing up for the Free Subscription will be able to access and view a limited number of selected stocks’ positioning scores. This data will be limited to a 3-month look-back window while Enterprise clients will be able to access up to 10 years on history with a fully integrated API to download historical positioning data sets.
8. How often will I be asked to enter my positioning scores?
CrowdThnk aggregates positioning data through many different channels, including surveys. To minimize users’ effort while maintaining accuracy of positioning measurements, CrowdThnk only asks for positioning scores once every week. If you have not entered your positioning scores in the given week, starting Sunday, we will prompt you to enter your new positioning score before proceeding to the data.
9. Is the data I entered on CrowdThnk confidential?
10. Can the Market Positioning data on CrowdThnk be downloaded?
CrowdThnk utilizes sophisticated Big Data techniques and Machine Learning algorithms to compute Market Consensus Positioning and forecast Future Price Movement. Enterprise clients will be able to access up to 10 years on history on each stock with a fully integrated API to download historical positioning data sets. As the investment landscape moves toward a data-driven world, we believe our data sets are a critical and important part of both systematic and discretionary funds’ data acquisition strategies.
11. What is the purpose of the Stock Watch List?
The Stock Watch list is designed to allow users to easily track the positioning scores for stocks they’re most interested in following. We allow Free Users to only access 5 stocks at any time. Additionally, a user can always add or delete more stocks according to their preferences by inserting or removing the stocks in the Search Field. Users will be able to view the Positioning Score and Historical Price Chart for their particular stock, up to a limited amount of history.
12. What are the main benefits of signing up for the Enterprise Account?
In addition to receiving 5 premium accounts to be distributed amongst your team, you’ll have the ability to interact directly with the CrowdThnk team on a monthly basis. Once you have signed up, we’ll contact you to set-up an initial conversation and coordinate the best times that work for your team. Conversations are open-ended and we can answer any questions pertaining to our service with the exception of proprietary, confidential information. In addition, you will receive access to download our data sets into your own database for backtesting and research purposes. CrowdThnk’s team is comprised of former Hedge Fund managers and Big Data Scientists, providing you rich insights into our platform and service.
13. Can I receive a sample of CrowdThnk Data Sets before purchasing the Enterprise software?
Yes, upon our initial meeting and conversation, we can provide you with a historical sample set of a limited amount of CrowdThnk data. We are committed to providing transparency and value to our clients so we’d like you to backtest, tinker and experiment with our data sets to explore and discover how it fits into your investment process.
14. Why can’t my recipient find the email I have sent him from CrowdThnk?
If your recipient uses Gmail or another Email Platform that filters “Primary” mail from “Promotional” mail, your recipient might find that email in his “Promotions” Tab in his Inbox. We have strived to configure our mailing system to bypass these filters to be received in the “Primary” Tab but Google often changes their algorithms. If your recipient still can’t locate the email, we’d suggest sending another one.
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